COVID-19 You and Your Nation’s Risk

This model was created to project expected spread of the COVID-19 virus in the United States as well as your personal risk to exposure. It is based on journal studies when possible and the best possible assumptions when academic studies do not exist.

How you behave

How society behaves

Projected Number of Active Cases Today4
Your Projected Risk of Infection by the end of May
Projected Amount of U.S. Citizens Infected by the end of May
(1) The average person contacts around 13 people a day.
(2) The average person touches around 40 common surfaces a day.
(3) Total touches is upper bounded at 66 for reasonableness
(5) There were outbreaks earlier, but this is the day that COVID-19 began to shut down public life.